The U.S. National Hurricane Center ( NHC ) has highlighted a part of the western Caribbean for a medium probability of tropical development during the next five days. Those odds could increase or decrease later this week depending on the development of atmospheric ingredients near this region .
This system has been dubbed Invest 93L by the NHC which is a appointment convention used to identify features that are being monitored for potential tropical growth .
Area to Watch ( The area in the hatch polygon indicates the general area of electric potential tropical growth, according to the National Hurricane Center. )
At a Glance
- The western Caribbean is being monitored for possible tropical development this week.
- This potential system will bring heavy rain to parts of Central America in the near-term.
- Late-season storms often form in the western Caribbean or western Atlantic and move northeastward.
Invest 93L is presently disorganized but is producing showers and thunderstorms near Central America .
In the near-term, a cold front and the broad area of low press may contribute to a heavy rain threat in southerly Mexico and Central America. The downpour could finally lead to flooding and mudslides .
Rainfall Forecast Through Thursday Ocean temperatures continue to run 1 to 3 degrees above average, or in the mid-80s, across the majority of the Caribbean Sea, which is batch supportive for tropical emergence and development. Land interaction, however, is presently a hindrance to its ability to organize .
A well-defined circulation center with collocate shower and thunderstorm bodily process is needed for a tropical depressive disorder or storm to develop. There are no signs of that happening at the moment, but we will be monitoring it for potential constitution later this workweek .
The area of disturb weather will get draw north and then northeast by a southbound dip in the jet pour that will sweep through the central and easterly states late this workweek into the weekend .
As a resultant role, the area of low pressure or a moisture surge associated with it could get pulled toward Cuba or South Florida by this weekend .
The main impingement from this system in those areas at this fourth dimension appears to be fleshy rain and possible deluge, but check back with weather.com for updates and possible changes to this bode .
Invest 93L or its moisture may get pulled toward southern Florida or Cuba this weekend .
Western Caribbean a Hot Spot For Late-Season Development
You ‘ll note in the chart below that there is a strong bunch of dots in the southwestern and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is a hotbed of tropical origins that we ‘ll be watching through the end of October and into November .
As the season begins to wind down, the warmest waters – 80 degrees and above – in the Atlantic Basin will recede to the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic while tip shear and dry air generally increase across the basin .
Origins for November tropical storms and hurricanes. November sees one more tropical ramp or hurricane, on average, according to the National Hurricane Center. More than 7 percentage of the season ‘s activity is yet to come in terms of median Accumulated Cyclone Energy ( ACE ), a metric function used to measure wind energy produced by tropical cyclones.
These cyclones typically move northeastward from the Caribbean or western Atlantic ahead of sweeping coldness fronts from North America. These systems can threaten Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda but can occasionally threaten areas closer to the U.S. East Coast, specially in October and early November .
typical tracks for November tropical storms and hurricanes .
Notable Late Season Storms
Hurricane Otto, 2016
ad Otto was the latest hurricane landfall in the Atlantic Basin since at least 1851, and it took a strange way west through Nicaragua and over Central America into the easterly Pacific. This landfall in Central America was the farthest south a landfall has taken position on record. Hurricane Otto made landfall during America ‘s Thanksgiving vacation .
Track history for Hurricane Otto, November 2016.
For more records from this historic hurricane, see our hurricane recapitulation .
Hurricane Kate, 1985
Hurricane Kate made landfall in the Florida Panhandle with winds of 100 miles per hour on Nov. 21. Kate is the latest hurricane to make landfall in the United States .
Hurricane Kate in the Gulf of Mexico. Superstorm Sandy, 2012
A meteorologic and climatological oddity, Sandy made landfall in New Jersey on Oct. 29 as a very large post-tropical cyclone in a complex placement of large-scale weather systems in the Atlantic and over the eastern United States .
Sandy pounded the East Coast with feet of storm scend, a closely 1,000-mile-wide core of tropical-storm-force winds, big rain and mountain snow.
Let ‘s not forget that Sandy started a reasonably normal late-October or November chase from the Caribbean, over Cuba and into the western Atlantic .
( NASA )