At a Glance
- Invest 97L is now spreading rain and gusty winds into the Windward Islands.
- This disturbance will likely develop into a tropical storm soon.
- It will threaten parts of the Caribbean Sea, possibly as a hurricane, this weekend or early next week.
- Potential U.S. impact next week remains unclear.
(MORE: Tropical Storm Matthew Becomes the 13th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season; Warnings Issued in the Windward Islands) Invest 97L is spreading rain and gusty winds into the Windward Islands, and is still probably to become tropical Storm Matthew soon, finally posing a terror early on next week in the Caribbean washbasin and potentially parts of the U.S. former future workweek.
( MORE: What is an Invest? ) Hurricane Hunters Wednesday morning found winds with this tropical disturbance were already improving to 40-45 miles per hour, but are still attempting to find a close surface humble which would prompt an upgrade to Tropical Storm Matthew. so far, 97L has been a strong tropical wave, featuring winds shifting from northeasterly ahead of the curl to southeasterly behind the wave, but lacking any west winds at the coat. ( MORE: Why Tropical Waves Are Important in Hurricane Season )
First Stop: Windward Islands
careless of what this system is called by meteorologists, radar imagination from Meteo France already indicates showers have spread into the Windward Islands. Some bands of rain may reach as far north as the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and may persist into Thursday in the Windward Islands . Five-Day Possible Formation Area Some of these bands of rain could be locally heavy, with some localize flood possible. It should be noted this disturbance is starting out at a fairly gloomy latitude, barely north of 10 degrees. therefore, locally heavy rain and gusty winds are expected in such locations as St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, possibly even coastal Venezuela. These showers may be accompanied by periodic weave gusts from 30 to 40 miles per hour. ( MORE: Hurricane Central )
By Thursday, the system will be in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Again, given the southerly traverse, there could be locally intemperate rain and hard winds in the typically drier “ ABC Islands ” – Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao – ampere well as parts of coastal Venezuela and Colombia Thursday through early Saturday. beyond that, doubt is silent considerable on the critical details of this organization. First of all, west to southwest winds aloft over the eastern Caribbean Sea are providing some wind shear, which is typically hostile to the exploitation and intensification of tropical cyclones . Current Satellite, Wind Shear ( Areas of senior high school wind shear are shown in the purple shape. )
Assuming the shear diminishes, the “ future Matthew ” should finally be able to intensify in the Caribbean Sea. In general, ensemble bode guidance suggests the “ future Matthew ” should make a northwestern or flush north turn in the Caribbean Sea erstwhile this weekend, as the arrangement reaches the southwestern edge of the Bermuda high. “ future Matthew ” could then threaten Hispañola, Jamaica or parts of eastern Cuba a soon as early next week . high-level features expected to be in fun to finally turn the system more northwestward or evening northward this weekend .
beyond that, it is far besides soon to determine which parts of the U.S. may be in danger from this “ future Matthew ”. As the Weather Channel hurricane technical, Michael Lowry eloquently put it in a late blog mail :
“ The science tells us there ’ s no skill in seven-to-ten day forecasts of tropical systems that haven ’ thyroxine formed ( like invests ). ”
corps de ballet calculate steering includes scenarios where “ future Matthew ” moves union, then northeast remaining well off the East Coast, but besides includes tracks into the Gulf of Mexico adjacent week. ( MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can’t Often Be Trusted ) The traverse will depend, in part, on the steering currents in the atmosphere .
- If high pressure aloft is stronger near or over the Eastern U.S., that may steer “future Matthew” closer to some part of the U.S.
- Conversely, if a southward dip in the jet stream is in play over some part of the Eastern U.S., that could help deflect “future Matthew” to the east.
For now, it appears the majority of our corps de ballet guidance has some form of high imperativeness aloft over some function of the East following week, implying a bring terror for at least region of the U.S. seashore. It ‘s besides worth noting interaction with country, including mountainous terrain in the Caribbean, which may besides play a significant function in this system ‘s future. Colorado State University tropical scientist, Dr. Phil Klotzbach noted 60 percentage of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from September 27 and beyond since 1900 have occurred in Florida. however, while lower probability, there have been landfalls this late in the season as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast . typical October named ramp lineage locations and tracks. For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and U.S. East Coast should monitor the advancement of this system. Check back with us frequently at weather.com for any important prognosis updates. now is a good prison term to make certain you ‘re prepare before the storm. Are you # HurricaneStrong ? MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes
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HURRICANE FELIX (2007)
Attaining Category 5 status in the Caribbean Sea, Felix barreled into Nicaragua and Honduras in early September, claiming at least 130 lives and destroying thousands of homes and buildings along the coast. ( image from International Space Station on Sep. 3, 2007 : national aeronautics and space administration )