Eye on the Tropics: Atlantic continues buzzing with low-end activity

Welcome to another edition of our weekly tropical mentality. The concluding two hurricane seasons have been full of many agile developing, lower-end storms. Some folks deride the National Hurricane Center for “ wasting time ” naming these things, but if it looks like a hedge and quacks like a duck, whether bloated, thin, short, grandiloquent, beat, feather, or what, it ’ randomness hush a duck. And that ’ s why we have added another storm since last week .
If you blinked, you might have missed Tropical Storm Danny yesterday, but it formed off the coast of South Carolina, made landfall and weakened to a depression within about 12 to 18 hours. It wasn ’ t quite comparable Imelda, and its fast fore gesture will keep it from becoming a Carolina or Georgia translation of Imelda, but it went quickly, and it came from an area I didn ’ t flush mention a week ago. so go the tropics .

Tropical outlook in a sentence

While there is one sphere in the Atlantic for us to monitor, it will probably face an uphill battle to make it to the Gulf in a position to develop any more significantly .
Satellite imagery from earlier this morning shows invests 95L and 97L in the Atlantic. While 95L looks beefier, it is less likely to develop significantly, while Invest 97L may have more of a future. (Weathernerds.org)

Invest 95L

The area people have been watching a estimable bit since last week is Invest 95L, which today does not pose much risk of making it to the Gulf. It will likely either stay disorganized and continue across the Caribbean ( where it will face mountains of shear ) or it will develop a little and get extract north toward the Bahamas, Florida, or Eastern Gulf. Colloquially, some of us in meteorology will use the give voice “ faint, west wind ” to describe these things. It seems highly unlikely that 95L makes it to Houston. The National Hurricane Center has barely lowered odds of development risk on 95L to 30 percentage over the adjacent 5 days.

Invest 97L

The one area I want to focus on is the new Invest 97L, which now has a 40 percentage luck of developing over the next 5 days according to the National Hurricane Center ( up from 20 percentage this good morning ) .
The NHC has boosted development odds for newly minted Invest 97L to 40% over the next 5 days. (NOAA)
As you can see on satellite above, Invest 97L has some loosen thunderstorm activeness, but it is not so far organized. The one thing about Tropical Storm Danny : Say what you will about it being “ pathetic ” or any, but at least it had that swirly cinnamon bun expression going for it yesterday. 97L is not there yet .
Invest 97L will be steered west or west-northwest around the periphery of high imperativeness in the Atlantic. Both cardinal operational models, the Euro and GFS tend to buy into Invest 97L developing over the future three days. however, they differ importantly on * how * much development occurs. I ’ ve plotted the GFS and european models below, showing you what we call 850 megabyte vorticity. What ? That ’ s a estimable map to look at to gauge where things stand with likely growth risk. And you can indeed see both the GFS & Euro show ample “ spin ” ( chicken & orange ) and low pressure near the entrance to the Caribbean on Friday good morning, with the Euro on the leave and the GFS on the right.

Both the Euro and GFS develop Invest 97L over the next 3 days, but the GFS is light years more aggressive even over the next 18 to 24 hours, which means this thing better hurry up and organize if we are to end up with whatever the GFS shows. (Tropical Tidbits)
The difference is that the GFS is far, far more aggressive in organizing Invest 97L over the adjacent 3 days. Why does this matter ? Because the GFS has been the only model showing this coming to the Gulf as a significant storm. If it ’ second unrealistically impregnable 3 days from now, that doesn ’ metric ton bode well for its accuracy on days 7 to 10. sol right now, using context clues, there is a dear tear we see the electric potential for a tropical depression or storm approaching the southern Lesser Antilles by the end of this week .
From there, this will have a mountain to overcome. The Caribbean is full of shear, and any system will not be greeted by favorable conditions on the other english of the islands. While the GFS keeps this going reasonably across the Caribbean, the Euro rips it to shreds. Neither model ’ mho ensemble is peculiarly bullish on this system ’ randomness future either. then sitting here on Tuesday, I find it difficult to think that Invest 97L will make it to Texas as an organized tropical entity .
That said, the upwind traffic pattern over Texas is probable to say reasonably cool and wet for most of the following 2 weeks. It gets tough to think that a tropical arrangement makes it here as an unionize system, but a bigger hazard could be that the moisture gets here and exacerbates an already wet Texas.

Rainfall over the next 10 days is expected to average about 1 to 3 inches more than normal in Texas, which is about as strong a signal as you could ask for for a wet pattern. (Weather Bell)
That ’ s a wet Texas to say the least. So the bottom credit line is that we ’ ll want to sort of watch this system for its moisture. But at least at this point there ’ s no reason to think it ’ s going to become a trouble for us, and I can ’ deoxythymidine monophosphate point you to any dependable, outlier model guidance that says it will. We will let you know if that were to change .
Beyond this, expect a placid torrid zone for a little while, as the atmospheric background signals ( what we much call the “ intraseasonal phase ” of the atmosphere ) is fairly suppressed over the Atlantic basin, meaning it will inhibit storm constitution. That doesn ’ deoxythymidine monophosphate mean we won ’ triiodothyronine see a storm or two, but in general, storm development risk should be lower than it has been. This could allow for our first meaning Saharan dust consequence of the summer as well sometime in mid-july. We will see .

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