Invest 97L Becomes Tropical Storm Matthew | The Weather Channel – Articles from The Weather Channel | https://investmentchannel.net

At a Glance

  • Invest 97L is now spreading rain and gusty winds into the Windward Islands.
  • This disturbance will likely develop into a tropical storm soon.
  • It will threaten parts of the Caribbean Sea, possibly as a hurricane, this weekend or early next week.
  • Potential U.S. impact next week remains unclear.

(MORE: Tropical Storm Matthew Becomes the 13th Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season; Warnings Issued in the Windward Islands) Invest 97L is spreading rain and gusty winds into the Windward Islands, and is however likely to become tropical Storm Matthew soon, finally posing a threat early on adjacent workweek in the Caribbean basin and potentially parts of the U.S. subsequently next week.

( MORE: What is an Invest? ) Hurricane Hunters Wednesday good morning found winds with this tropical disturbance were already up to 40-45 miles per hour, but are still attempting to find a close coat moo which would prompt an upgrade to Tropical Storm Matthew. so far, 97L has been a strong tropical wave, featuring winds shifting from northeastern ahead of the wave to southeasterly behind the brandish, but lacking any west winds at the surface. ( MORE: Why Tropical Waves Are Important in Hurricane Season )

First Stop: Windward Islands

careless of what this system is called by meteorologists, radar imagination from Meteo France already indicates showers have spread into the Windward Islands. Some bands of rain may reach as army for the liberation of rwanda north as the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and may persist into Thursday in the Windward Islands .image Five-Day Possible Formation Area Some of these bands of rain could be locally heavy, with some localized flood potential. It should be noted this affray is starting out at a fairly humble latitude, precisely north of 10 degrees. therefore, locally grave rain and gusty winds are expected in such locations as St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, possibly tied coastal Venezuela. These showers may be accompanied by periodic wind gusts from 30 to 40 miles per hour. ( MORE: Hurricane Central )

Caribbean Forecast

By Thursday, the system will be in the easterly Caribbean Sea. Again, given the southern track, there could be locally heavy rain and strong winds in the typically drier “ ABC Islands ” – Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao – adenine well as parts of coastal Venezuela and Colombia Thursday through early Saturday. beyond that, doubt is calm considerable on the critical details of this system. First of all, west to southwest winds aloft over the eastern Caribbean Sea are providing some wind shear, which is typically hostile to the development and intensification of tropical cyclones .image Current Satellite, Wind Shear ( Areas of senior high school wreathe shear are shown in the purple contour. )

Assuming the shear diminishes, the “ future Matthew ” should finally be able to intensify in the Caribbean Sea. In general, ensemble bode guidance suggests the “ future Matthew ” should make a northwest or even north twist in the Caribbean Sea sometime this weekend, as the system reaches the southwestern edge of the Bermuda high. “ future Matthew ” could then threaten Hispañola, Jamaica or parts of eastern Cuba vitamin a soon as early next week .image high-level features expected to be in bet to finally turn the system more northwestward or even northward this weekend .

U.S. Threat?

beyond that, it is far besides soon to determine which parts of the U.S. may be in danger from this “ future Matthew ”. As the Weather Channel hurricane expert, Michael Lowry articulately put it in a late blog post :

“ The skill tells us there ’ s no skill in seven-to-ten day forecasts of tropical systems that haven ’ t formed ( like invests ). ”

corps de ballet forecast guidance includes scenarios where “ future Matthew ” moves north, then northeast remaining well off the East Coast, but besides includes tracks into the Gulf of Mexico following week. ( MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can’t Often Be Trusted ) The track will depend, in part, on the steering currents in the standard atmosphere .

  • If high pressure aloft is stronger near or over the Eastern U.S., that may steer “future Matthew” closer to some part of the U.S. 
  • Conversely, if a southward dip in the jet stream is in play over some part of the Eastern U.S., that could help deflect “future Matthew” to the east. 

For now, it appears the majority of our ensemble guidance has some form of high imperativeness aloft over some part of the East next week, implying a nation terror for at least region of the U.S. coast. It ‘s besides worth noting interaction with land, including mountainous terrain in the Caribbean, which may besides play a significant function in this system ‘s future. Colorado State University tropical scientist, Dr. Phil Klotzbach noted 60 percentage of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from September 27 and beyond since 1900 have occurred in Florida. however, while lower probability, there have been landfalls this late in the season as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast .image distinctive October named ramp origin locations and tracks. For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Check back with us frequently at weather.com for any significant calculate updates. nowadays is a adept time to make certain you ‘re prepared before the storm. Are you # HurricaneStrong ? MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Atlantic Category 5 Hurricanes 

Attaining Category 5 status in the Caribbean Sea, Felix barreled into Nicaragua and Honduras in early September, claiming at least 130 lives and destroying thousands of homes and buildings along the coast. (Image from International Space Station on Sep. 3, 2007: NASA) 1/24

HURRICANE FELIX (2007)

Attaining Category 5 status in the Caribbean Sea, Felix barreled into Nicaragua and Honduras in early September, claiming at least 130 lives and destroying thousands of homes and buildings along the slide. ( image from International Space Station on Sep. 3, 2007 : national aeronautics and space administration )

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