This decline has left GDP just 0.3% larger than it was in October 2022, the Office for National Statistics said today (13 December). Economists had anticipated there would be no change in GDP following a 0.2% growth in the prior month.

Services output was the main contributor to the fall in GDP throughout the month, due to its large size in the economy, while production output fell 0.8% and the construction sector fell 0.5%.

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Within the services sector, information and communication was the largest contributor to the fall as it dropped by 1.7% throughout the month, due to falls in computer programming and motion picture, video and TV production.

The ONS also noted that October had “exceptionally wet weather”, which worked as a negative factor from businesses, most notably in the construction, retail, pubs and tourism sectors.

The figures come in advance of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting tomorrow (14 December), which will likely see the central bank holding rates in its attempt to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said the data would be “piling the pressure on the Bank of England ahead of Thursday’s interest rate decision”.

“It will be crucial to see how the BoE is monitoring economic growth going forward and what that might mean for the path of interest rates. Calls for rate cuts are likely to grow stronger should this sort of economic data persist,” she added.

“The Bank of England has done a good job not tipping the UK into recession to date, but interest rates are biting now, and further contraction cannot be ruled out. It could be a while before things get better again.”

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Meanwhile, Neil Birrell, CIO of Premier Miton Investors, said the fall in GDP “should not be too much of a surprise”.

“It is clear that economic growth has been stalling, as should be expected given policy measures, which is where all eyes will be focused now,” he said. “The Bank of England will be pleased that their actions have worked, but worried that they have gone too far.”